
If the waiver extends again past mid-February, OMSA's investment-signal argument becomes harder to dismiss: a 12-month-plus suspension of the domestic preference rule would cover a full contracting and financing cycle for new vessel orders.
Domestic tanker operators and Jones Act shipyards — particularly those dependent on coastal petroleum trade — face a compounding problem: each extension defers the revenue certainty that underwrites newbuild financing, and no domestic yard will lay a keel for a Jones Act tanker while the waiver's endpoint is undefined.
Nine months of continuous waiver authority is the pressure point for U.S. domestic shipbuilders and operators: the Offshore Marine Service Association argues that each extension signals to investors that the domestic tanker market can be suspended by executive action, redirecting vessel investment overseas.
The Maritime Administration's case-by-case pre-review requirement — in place since the last renewal and carried forward unchanged — is the only procedural check on displacement of Jones Act-qualified vessels, and American Maritime Partnership is pressing the administration to enforce the statutory military-necessity standard more strictly before mid-February, when the next extension decision arrives.
How many of the 90 million barrels moved by foreign-flagged tankers were cases where a Jones Act-qualified vessel was actually available and passed over, versus cases where no domestic vessel could have served the route?
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