
If no qualified second source emerges from this market research by mid-2027, Boeing's San Antonio and Jacksonville lines become the sole commercial pipeline at exactly the moment Boeing is diverting engineering and production bandwidth to F-47 and F/A-XX. That concentration risk falls on FRCSW in San Diego, which would have to absorb overflow on a government-operated line not sized for surge.
L3Harris, StandardAero, and Ducommun have MRO infrastructure that could theoretically bid, but none currently holds a Super Hornet SLM certification — standing one up from scratch takes time the FY29 target does not generously allow.
Boeing's announced closure of its St.
Louis SLM line in 2027 — combined with its concurrent ramp on F-47 and F/A-XX new production — leaves NAVAIR with a capacity gap before the mid-2030s deadline to cycle most of the 550-aircraft fleet through SLM.
At 47 aircraft per year, the full fleet requires roughly 12 years of throughput, so any slip in standing up a second source pushes tail-end jets past their 6,000-hour service life without the Block III upgrades. The FY29 start date is the next hard checkpoint: NAVAIR's market research must yield a contract award well before that to allow facility buildout.
Does the 47-aircraft-per-year target include EA-18G Growler SLM inductions, or is that figure Super Hornets only — and what is the separate Growler throughput requirement given the roughly 160-aircraft fleet and the ongoing Block II upgrade program?
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