Lockheed Martin in Talks for U.S. Scandium and Germanium Supplies Following Trump's Critical Minerals Executive Order

Lockheed Martin is negotiating long-term supply agreements with NioCorp Developments for 15 metric tons per year of scandium from a Nebraska mine opening in 2028, and with Teck Resources for germanium from its Alaska operation, responding to Trump's executive order eliminating waivers that allowed defense contractors to source critical minerals from China. The deals represent the first major primes' commitment to domestic mineral sourcing under the new waiver restrictions.

The waiver ban (signed last month per the article) removed the escape hatch — defense contractors can no longer petition Commerce for exceptions to buy Chinese scandium or germanium at 30-50% cost discounts. Lockheed's move to lock in NioCorp at 15 metric tons per year (a quarter of global demand) before the mine even opens is a signal that the ban has teeth and won't be reversed.

This forces a cost-structure choice across the primes: either absorb higher domestic mineral prices now and compete on other margins, or bet that a future administration will restore waivers — a bet that looks increasingly expensive. The germanium deal with Teck (Canadian, not U.S., but outside China) suggests Lockheed is also hedging against NioCorp execution risk by securing a fallback from a proven producer.

WHY IT MATTERS

Lockheed just locked in a quarter of global scandium demand before U.S. production capacity exists — a bet that the waiver ban is irreversible and that NioCorp's 2028 timeline is credible.

The move forces RTX, Northrop, and Boeing to either match Lockheed's long-term commitments or accept cost penalties on their own F-35 sustainment and missile production. The germanium deal signals Lockheed is willing to absorb price premiums from Teck (a Canadian producer, not U.S.-mined, but North American and outside China) rather than risk waiver reinstatement. Watch the Q3 2026 earnings calls for RTX and Northrop guidance on their own mineral sourcing strategy — if neither announces comparable deals by October, the market will read Lockheed as the only prime taking Trump's ban seriously, which could shift procurement risk onto the smaller contractors and subcontractors in the supply chain.

WHAT THIS DOESN’T TELL US

Does NioCorp's preliminary agreement include penalty clauses if the Nebraska mine misses the 2028 opening, or is Lockheed absorbing the schedule risk? The article doesn't say whether Teck's germanium supply is from existing Alaska production or a new processing line.

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