RAF Develops Orbital Warfare Capabilities as Space Threats Grow

Air Chief Marshal Sir Harv Smyth announced at the UK Space Power Conference on September 23 that Britain is developing capabilities for orbital warfare — systems to disrupt, degrade, and deny hostile activity in space. The UK is committing £2.3 billion to satellite communications, £880 million to space-based ISR and space control, and £440 million to novel space technology through 2030.

The timing matters: this announcement comes as China's Type 095 attack submarine entered the water and as the Middle East conflict has exposed the vulnerability of GPS-denied operations. Britain is signaling that NATO space infrastructure cannot be taken for granted.

The Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability with Australia and the US is the operational centerpiece — if it becomes a counter-space sensor network rather than a passive ISR tool, it redefines AUKUS Pillar 2 beyond submarine autonomy into contested-domain operations. The £50 million Skynet 5 life-extension is the tell: the RAF is buying time until Skynet 6A arrives, which suggests the new satellite will carry counter-space payloads or at least be designed to operate in a contested environment.

WHY IT MATTERS

RAF is shifting from treating space as a support domain to preparing for direct contestation.

Smyth's language — 'control of space,' 'deny adversaries freedom to operate' — signals NATO's first explicit move toward dedicated counter-space doctrine outside the US Space Force model. The investment line (£3.62B total through 2030) is modest against US Space Force budgets but represents a strategic commitment to operational independence from American space assets, which matters if the alliance fractures or if US space infrastructure is contested. Watch whether the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability with Australia and the US becomes a trilateral counter-space sensor network or remains ISR-focused.

WHAT THIS DOESN’T TELL US

Does the RAF's orbital warfare doctrine include kinetic anti-satellite weapons, or is it limited to jamming and electronic warfare? The speech avoids naming specific systems — a critical omission given that only the US and China have demonstrated ASAT capability.

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