The ceasefire's failure to clear the backlog exposes a hard constraint: even with an MOU in place, only a minority of trapped ships could exit in 21 days. The 65 new arrivals during that window suggest shipping lines did not believe the opening would hold — they sent cargo into the gulf betting on a longer window than they got. If the blockade resumes at the enforcement tempo of May–July (when Iran sank merchant vessels and US forces fired on cargo ships), the insurance and fuel-surcharge cost of Persian Gulf loading will push more crude onto the Red Sea route, which is already down 24% week-on-week due to Houthi attacks.
Lloyd's List Intelligence confirms the ceasefire window cleared only a fraction of trapped traffic; the collapse of the MOU resets the blockade to active enforcement mode and traps a new cohort of 65 vessels that gambled on the temporary opening.
For the 29 tankers still locked in, the restart of Iranian interdiction or US naval fire means crude loadings at Persian Gulf terminals face another 6+ month stall — forcing refiners dependent on Gulf crude to absorb the full cost of Red Sea rerouting (24% traffic drop week-on-week, per Lloyd's) or accept substitution from non-Gulf sources at a 12-18% premium. Watch the next Strait of Hormuz transit count: Lloyd's reported a 39-ship uptick in the week of July 27–August 3, but Diakun flagged this as an outlier, not a confidence signal. If transits fall back below the post-ceasefire baseline in the next two weeks, shipping markets will price in a return to active blockade enforcement.
Did the 65 ships that entered during the MOU window carry cargo designated for Iran, or were they commercial traffic betting on passage? The composition matters for assessing whether Iran will treat them as sanctions-evasion vessels or as legitimate stranded commerce.
Strategic intelligence, synthesized daily — with a public track record. Every call graded against what actually happened.